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Course Description

This course will be treated as a workshop in decision consulting and modeling. It will develop additional methodology and more advanced applications for students who were comfortable in First-Year Decision Analysis and wish to pick up where that course left off without significant overlap. Applications receiving special attention in this course are financial modeling, such as the random walk, hedging, and modeling of real options; strategy analysis and modeling, including structuring models, hybrid strategies, and contingent strategy under uncertainty; and marketing models, such as brand-switching dynamics. One class day will be treated as a real-time modeling studio, where the class works together on a task provided in a one-page case at the beginning of class. New methodology will treat risk preference, sensitivity analysis, risk management, correlated variables and scenarios, risk exposure, dynamic uncertainty models,  Optquest for optimization within simulation models, and the decision quality process used in decision consulting. Students will use Excel and add-in software products.

Course Objectives: 

• Provide experience in decision consulting and modeling in a workshop atmosphere
• Extend the methodology and advanced applications used in First-Year Decision Analysis, particularly towards dynamic models, risk preference, discrete-event simulation, and simulation of random variables over time.  
• Develop general modeling skills and experience through a decision quality process

WHO SHOULD TAKE THIS COURSE: This course is for those interested in using quantitative models for consulting, investment banking, starting their own businesses, or decision modeling for finance, marketing, and operations applications. The course is about creating models and model-building skills, not simply appreciating what others can do with models.

PRINCIPAL MODE(S) OF INSTRUCTION: Cases; Lectures; Problem Analyses; Analytical Modeling Studio.

EXAMS: Take-Home Final or Paper

PROJECTS OR PAPERS: Some daily preparation submitted electronically (graded based on completion and, if used in class, on quality).

GRADE DISTRIBUTION: Final Exam or Paper 45%; Class Participation 40%; Completion of uploaded Assignments 10%;  Completion of Risk Preference Utility Math quiz 5%. Class participation for a single class is graded on a 0 to 2 scale, where 0 is no contribution, 2.0 is "out of this world," and above 1.0 is excellent. 

       Attendance Policy:  First two unexcused absences receive a 0 participation
      grade, as though you were present, but did not participate.  Each unexcused
      absence beyond two counts -2 daily participation points.
      Honors Guideline:  If you submit spreadsheets and other files ahead of class,
      I assume it is your own work, unless you tell me otherwise.  Group work is
      acceptable, provided you attribute the work to all authors who contributed.

Last updated: 07/18/08